The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, which predicts that crude production and demand in the United States will increase in 2023. The EIA expects crude production to rise by 590,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.44 million bpd in 2023, and another 190,000 bpd to 12.63 million bpd in 2024. Moreover, the EIA predicts that petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption will increase by 100,000 bpd to 20.4 million bpd in 2023.
One of the driving factors behind this expected increase in demand is China’s shift from its zero-COVID policy, which is expected to increase travel within the country. According to the EIA, China will be the main driver of global growth in 2023. As a result, the agency predicts that global gross domestic product will increase by 1.4% in 2024, boosting oil demand by 400,000 bpd to 20.8 million bpd.
While the EIA predicts an overall increase in production and demand, there are some exceptions to this trend. For example, the agency expects Russian oil production in March to decline by more than the cuts the nation announced. However, the EIA has revised its forecasts for Russian oil production upward by 400,000 bpd due to the recent petroleum exports exceeding expectations.
In addition to its forecasts for crude production and demand, the EIA has also revised its outlook for U.S. gasoline consumption in 2023 and 2024. The agency predicts that U.S. gasoline consumption will increase by about 2% from last month’s outlook. The EIA attributes this to a decrease in vehicle miles traveled in 2022 compared to 2021, as well as a reduction in the estimate of vehicle fuel efficiency during that period.
Long-term projections indicate a rise in oil use over the world. Overall, the EIA’s STEO report suggests that the U.S. energy sector will experience growth in the coming years, with crude production and demand increasing alongside a global economic recovery. However, the report also highlights some challenges that the sector will face, such as the potential for supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and weather events. In addition, the report emphasises the importance of continued investment in renewable energy sources to ensure a sustainable energy future.
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